Bath | 07.11.2025 | Team News

SHIFT’s Doug Baker talks China: The present. The future. The opportunity.

SHIFT’s Doug Baker talks China: The present. The future. The opportunity.

The media is increasingly talking about all things China - from EVs to consumer electronics, and now cycling. In this bikebiz feature, SHIFT’s Chief Strategy Officer Doug Baker shares his thoughts and insights, starting with an open question and a genuine curiosity about the Eastern cycling world, explored through the lens of a Western agency.

bikebiz Feature

‘What timeframe do you see for this ‘early adopter’ or ‘Chinese brands going mainstream in the West’ phase?’

Let’s start by saying that China’s market sees two distinct elements: e-bike riders, who are largely those using a bike for transport or leisure, and enthusiast riders like those we recognise in Europe and North America.

Talking first about e-bikes, the Western market’s “early adopter” phase is now.

Take Aventon, founded by a Chinese owner but currently US-focused, and one of the biggest eBike brands in the US, by sales. The brand has succeeded through a strong dealer network, good e-commerce, and effective marketing, connecting with an American audience. When you look at the bikes, they are clearly well-targeted for a specific audience. In comparison, some traditional players have over-specified components, making their products less mass-rider-centric.

Another brand that stands out is Tenways. A Chinese business which has made it clear they are here for people who are looking at an e-bike as a form of transport. The clarity of focus is a major asset. There is no confusion about what the bikes are and who the brand is for. That clarity has an impact on retailers and consumers.

In e-bikes, the conversation is not about when we will see Chinese-owned brands go mainstream in the West. It has happened, and is continuing to expand. Clearly, it’s not possible to have this conversation without mentioning DJI, Avinox, and Amflow.

How are brands like DJI (Avinox and Amflow), Tarran, and Gobao, influencing Western perceptions, challenging the stereotypical (outdated/negative connotation) narrative around ‘made in China’?

Look at the impact of DJI. At Eurobike 2024, they had the stand with the biggest crowds. What’s happened since hasn’t slowed down. If we look at the landscape outside of our industry, EV innovation is increasingly China-led. Battery technology is China-led. That’s mainstream visible in a way that will influence so many things beyond the world of EV.

Across Southeast Asia, two-wheel mobility is a massive market. eMoped manufacturers are increasingly also e-bike component makers. Take Ananda, as just one example.

With consumer electronics, quality products from Apple and DJI, Insta360, and a host of others have, in reality, long shaped what ‘Made in China’ means. Lazy, negative stereotyping is exactly that.

Ok, so moving on from e-bikes, will the arrival of Chinese brands in Hall 11 at Eurobike see Western distributors making moves to secure partnerships?

This is an interesting one. There’s more than one element to consider here.

We have to be aware, you and I, of our own bike nerd bias. What I mean is that there are brands which, to us, feel way more visible than they actually are outside of our social media feed or the YouTube content we watch. Remember, we spend our time online searching for new bike stuff in ways many in the wider enthusiast market likely don’t and won’t.

Case in point: Winspace. Massive YouTube impact – if you like your YouTube content to be niche cycling-focused. But, how many people do you ride with who have Winspace wheels? When was the last time you saw a Yoeleo on a club ride? Do you see Seka taking market share from people who buy their Specialized or Pinarello from a retailer?

I can actually back this with data. We have a brand tracking tool called Leaderboard that runs across UK, the US and Europe (Fr, Ger, It, Sp).

Amongst other data points, we capture ‘unprompted awareness’, asking the question “when thinking about [a category], what brands come to mind”.

When we review our data across the last 3 waves (so over 4,500 respondents across all categories), we only had 7 mentions of Winspace and XDS. So riders may have heard of these brands, but only a tiny fraction are remembering them without being prompted at this point.

It’s not that the products aren’t strong, because they clearly are. It’s more that the brands aren’t appealing to most enthusiasts – at this stage in the game. Brand building is happening, but even with the arrival of XDS in the World Tour, there is still much to do before we see a Chinese road bike brand achieve what, for example, Decathlon has with Van Rysel.

If you are looking for value, and that’s definitely an element of the market, there is clearly appeal. But, for a significant amount of enthusiast cyclists – who want style and story with their purchase, rather than looking for the best price – we’re not there yet. And, based on the current state of play, it could be a while before this shapes up to be a reality.

Talking groupsets, as one example, pre-pandemic, who had specced Microshift? What was the reaction once people got their hands on and rode a Microshfit-equipped bike? It’s decent gear. Did it feel less capable than the Shimano equivalent? Remembering that there isn’t a SRAM comparable option. Now, will this mean that L-Twoo and their electric shifting groupsets will make it onto Western bike brands’ products in the near future? A big question.

The natural performance-focused crossover is arguably the world of eMTB, where you can see drive units making people think about what else might be good to buy from the MTB equivalent of Panda Podium.

What opportunities exist for Western brands looking at the Chinese domestic market?

Now this is something we get asked about quite a bit. The challenge is that, at present, the Chinese market is overstocked and has, in the context of everything we hear from our sources, significantly cooled off.

Even in this current state, it is important to build and maintain relationships. The market has so many unique aspects.

Women riders represent a far bigger, much more visible group. It’s not just couples riding together. There is, very clearly, a strong women’s scene – especially visible on social media – with women riding together.

This is, in some ways, also visible when you look at the staffing make-up of exhibitors at Eurobike. Chinese and wider Southeast Asian brands have far more female staff working in the business. Now I don’t have data to support this, and I’m guessing you don’t either; however, both of us clearly, independently of each other, see this.

The social media landscape is unlike anything in the West. Making content for the market has to work for the way Chinese consumers use social media. WeChat and RedNote (Xiaohongshu) are on another level, even compared with TikTok. Transactional retail is the major element. The way brands exist online, and the way consumers interact with them, plus the expectations of Chinese consumers, require a 100% localisation-based approach. There are countless examples of Western brands failing to grasp this, to their detriment.

Today, we see OEMs becoming potential new owners of established brands, the arrival of new-to-Western-markets brands, and a new(ish) market for established Western brands.

As our industry sees consolidation happening, new owners of established brands seem very possible. Business models are also changing.

Outside of China, you’ve recently featured the J-Star public listing on the Nasdaq – a Taiwanese business which makes TdF-winning bikes, as well as now exploring ways to become a financial partner with established brands. We’ve seen Korean business Youngone acquire Scott. Makers becoming owners is an approach which avoids the relationship ‘competition’ complexities of manufacturers launching their own brand.

Talking about Western brands doing business in China, all the signals are that the market has softened since the peak of 12 to 18 months ago. It’s this domestic market slowdown which has, in part, driven Chinese brands to explore Western markets.

Now, for established Western brands that have already built local Chinese market relationships, those connections are important and valuable.

Being in the country, rather than at a distance, can make a difference. We see it in the UK. Customers show it in their relationships with brands. China will be no different.

It’s important to emphasise here that with proximity comes understanding, which enables you to better serve your customers, with products and actual service-based interactions.

When you make the effort to be close to your customers, you can understand and serve them better.

SHIFT’s Doug Baker talks China: The present. The future. The opportunity.
Back to top